ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003 FABIAN HAS AN OUTSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...TYPICAL OF MAJOR HURRICANES. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FABIAN HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS FOR FABIAN NOT TO GAIN ADDITIONAL STRENGTH SINCE THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND THE MODELS INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THERE ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE UNFAVORABLE WINDS MAY INSTEAD IMPEDE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMOVING THESE WESTERLIES TOO QUICKLY AND THESE WINDS ARE STILL THERE. FABIAN HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE U.S. EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. ON THE LONG RANGE...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER FABIAN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE SOUTHERMOST TRACK AS IT DID IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFDL AND THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE SOONER. FORECASTER AVILA/BERG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 17.4N 49.8W 100 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 17.7N 51.6W 105 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.0N 54.2W 110 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.5N 56.5W 110 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 59.0W 110 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 21.0N 62.0W 110 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 23.0N 65.5W 110 KT 120HR VT 04/1800Z 26.5N 68.0W 110 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC