ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN 28 DEGREES C AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK. VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE LEVELLING OFF OF THE MAX WINDS SHOWN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY A REFLECTION OF OUR GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTS IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT 270/17. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IS ALSO A VERY TYPICAL ONE FOR LATE AUGUST. THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...HOWEVER. IF THE SYSTEM NEAR 20N44W BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT COULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD THAN EXPECTED TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 14.6N 31.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.1N 34.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 15.6N 37.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 16.1N 40.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 29/1800Z 16.5N 43.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.5N 48.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 31/1800Z 18.5N 52.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 56.0W 50 KT NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC