ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003 CORRECT CLAUDETTE TO ERIKA IN FIRST PARAGRAPH WSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES THAT ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED A ROUGHLY 30 NM WIDE EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC SURROUNDING CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE JUST EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 992 MB...AS THE EYE DROP REPORTING 998 MB APPARENTLY MISSED THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 67 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 700 MB. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/18. ERIKA IS SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND GET LEFT BEHIND BY ERIKA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE MUCH DECELERATION CAN OCCUR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A GRADUALLY DECELERATING WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL ERIKA DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. ERIKA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE STORM IS IN A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. INDEED...ALL FIVE OF THE EXPERIMENTAL CRITERIA FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHIPS MODEL ARE MET. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION IS THAT THE STORM SHOULD RUN AGROUND IN 6-9 HR. ERIKA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-70 KT HURRICANE...BUT IF A BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS IT COULD BE STRONGER. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE AT THE TPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 26.0N 95.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/0000Z 26.0N 101.0W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/1200Z 26.0N 104.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:57 UTC