ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 18/2254Z SHOWS THAT DANNY HAS A 15 NM WIDE EYE. GOOD OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. A NOTE ON THE INTENSITY CONCERNS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. NORMALLY A 65 KT ATLANTIC HURRICANE HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 987 MB. DANNY HAS BEEN EMBEDDED IN VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES FOR ALL OF ITS LIFE...AND THUS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LIKELY MUCH HIGHER THAN 987 MB. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXACT PRESSURE. THIS PACKAGE WILL USE 1005 MB WITH GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE VALUE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/16. DANNY IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WESTERLIES AND APPROACHING A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 49W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HR. AFTER THAT...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS. DYNAMICAL MODELS CALL FOR A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST... WHILE THE NHC98 AND LBAR CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CALL FOR DANNY...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. DANNY HAS PASSED OVER A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM AND IS NOW MOVING INTO COLDER WATER. WEAKENING IS THUS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SHORTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR. THE FORECAST SOUTHWARD TURN COULD CARRY DANNY INTO WARMER WATER AFTER 48-72 HR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THAT TIME...AND IF DANNY SURVIVES THERE COULD BE RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR THAT UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR HOW MUCH OF DANNY WILL BE LEFT AFTER THE NEXT 48-72 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 40.5N 50.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 41.8N 48.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 42.6N 44.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 42.1N 40.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 40.8N 38.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 37.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 23/0000Z 35.5N 38.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 24/0000Z 32.5N 42.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC