ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2003 THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND IS NO LONGER OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND TWO MAIN HOOKING BANDS. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE STORM IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS...STRENGHTENING IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...AND DANNY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT QUITE REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 65 KNOTS DURING A CONVECTIVE BURST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DANNY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ONCE IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AFTER 48 HOURS...DANNY SHOULD BE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND WEAKENING. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EVEN SOUTH AROUND THE OTHER SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT SOLUTION BUT THE TURN IS MORE GRADUAL AND SLOWER. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 35.8N 56.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 37.4N 56.6W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 39.5N 54.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 42.0N 50.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 43.0N 46.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/1800Z 41.5N 37.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/1800Z 39.0N 35.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/1800Z 37.0N 35.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC