ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANNY IS WELL ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP A BANDING-TYPE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT BUT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON IN TROPICAL CYCLONES AT HIGH LATITUDES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS...BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND KGWC. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...DANNY HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. INITIAL MOTION IS 340 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. AS ANTICIPATED DANNY HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS..THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF DANNY BUT THEY DO INDEED SHOW A VORTMAX MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. DANNY IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 34.9N 56.7W 55 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 36.3N 57.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 38.5N 55.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 40.5N 52.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 42.0N 49.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 42.5N 44.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/1200Z 42.5N 40.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/1200Z 42.0N 37.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC