ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003 CLAUDETTE IS QUITE DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THERE ARE 3 OR 4 CLOUD SWIRLS/VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER. THE STRONGEST REMAINING CONVECTION IS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE 50-55 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED EARLIER BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARENCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/12. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WEST OF CLAUDETTE...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 32N92W. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. SURFACE AND RAWINSONDE DATA INDICATES LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THE TROUGH WILL REACH ITS MAXIMUM SOUTHERN EXTENT NEAR 85W OR EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF CLAUDETTE...AND THAT THE TROUGH IS UNLIKELY TO RECURVE THE CYCLONE. MOST DYNAMIC GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY MOVING CLAUDETTE NORTHWEST FOR 24-48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE LBAR AND THE MM5 TAKE THE STORM TOWARD LOUISIANA...WHICH LOOKS STRANGE IN LIGHT OF THE NORTHERLY 500 MB FLOW THAT ALL MODELS FORECAST IN THAT AREA. THE UKMET HAS ALSO JUMPED FURTHER NORTH... BUT IS INCONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS THUS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE WESTWARD MODEL SUITE. CLAUDETTE REMAINS IN SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THIS AND THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY PREVENT STRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. THE NOGAPS IS NOW THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE. THE UKMET...GFS...AND CANADIAN DEVELOP THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH WOULD EXPOSE THE CYCLONE TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLAUDETTE STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...THE STORM COULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE CHANCES OF THIS APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME. THE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV JET IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION...WITH THE DATA TO BE USED IN THE 00Z MODELS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 22.4N 88.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 23.5N 89.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 24.6N 91.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 25.3N 92.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 25.8N 93.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 26.0N 95.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 26.0N 98.0W 50 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 16/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC