ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003 THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BILL. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY OBSERVED BUT IT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THERE IS SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BILL TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. A NEW RECON WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 12 UTC. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL LATER TODAY. TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS BILL NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE COAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BILL OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPERIENCED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0900Z 27.6N 91.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 30/1800Z 29.2N 91.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 02/0600Z 35.0N 86.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/0600Z 36.0N 80.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 04/0600Z 37.0N 72.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:56 UTC