ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/16. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ANA REMAINS ON COURSE AND IS BEING STEERED EASTWARD BY DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL GRADUALLY LIFT THE CYCLONE SLOWLY POLEWARD WITH TIME AS THE PRESENT AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WHILE ALSO SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AZORES AMPLIFIES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... BY THAT TIME ANA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40 KT. CONVECTION HAS WAXED AND WANED MOST OF THE DAY...BUT HAS MADE A BRIEF COMEBACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND THIS IS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...35 KT...AND 30 KT FROM SAB...AFWA...AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE ANA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS SINCE CONVECTION AND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE APPEAR TO LIE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS FAR EAST AS ABOUT 45W LONGITUDE. EAST OF THAT...HOWEVER...AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AZORES HAS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND THAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE WITH ANA ONCE IT REACHES THAT SAME REGION BY 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES ANA IN 36 HOURS AND THAT IS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT WILL AFFECT THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 30.2N 53.9W 40 KTS 12HR VT 23/1200Z 30.9N 51.3W 40 KTS 24HR VT 24/0000Z 31.5N 48.1W 40 KTS 36HR VT 24/1200Z 31.9N 45.3W 40 KTS 48HR VT 25/0000Z 32.2N 42.8W 35 KTS 72HR VT 26/0000Z 33.0N 35.5W 35 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC