ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON APR 21 2003 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 105/14. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ACCELERATING EAST TO EAST NORTH-EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND ST2.5 FROM SAB. A 1023Z QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED 35 KT WIND SPEEDS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SHEAR WEAKENING THE STORM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS EARLIER. THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM THE LARGER CLOUD SYSTEM THAT IT WAS EARLIER CONNECTED TO...AND IT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT ANA HAS BECOME TROPICAL. THE DEMARCATION BETWEEN TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL IS A BIT MURKY AND I WILL LEAVE ANA AS SUBTROPICAL FOR THE TIME BEING. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 29.4N 62.4W 35 KTS 12HR VT 22/0600Z 29.4N 59.9W 30 KTS 24HR VT 22/1800Z 29.7N 56.6W 30 KTS 36HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 53.0W 30 KTS 48HR VT 23/1800Z 31.0N 49.0W 30 KTS 72HR VT 24/1800Z 32.0N 42.0W 25 KTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:49:55 UTC