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Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities Products (Text)

Contents

1. Overview
2. Description of the tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities text product
3. Description of the tropical cyclone wind speed probabilities graphical products
4. Description of the tropical cyclone NDFD wind speed probabilities products
5. Potential advantages as compared to previous products
6. Method for computing the wind speed probabilities

4. Description of the NDFD wind speed probabilities products

Cumulative – These values tell you the overall probability the event will occur sometime during the specified cumulative forecast period (0-6 hours, 0-12, 0-18, etc.) at each specific point. These values are provided in both the text and graphical formats. In the text product, the numbers are in parentheses. The graphical products depict only cumulative values. The text product is transmitted to users via normal NWS dissemination methods. The graphic is available on the internet from the National Hurricane Center and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

Incremental – These values tell you the probability the event will occur sometime during the specified forecast period (0 - 6 hours, 6-12, 12-18, etc.) at each specific point. These values are incremental since they can increase in value by accounting for the possibility the event might start in an earlier period and still be occurring in the specified period. These values are not currently provided in the official operational text or graphical NHC products.

Next:  Potential advantages as compared to previous products