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AXPZ20 KNHC 240925
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SHARP RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SE MEXICO COAST. GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP OF NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO FUNNELING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WHILE THIS MORNING PULSE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT- LIVED...20 TO 30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...WHEN THE EARLY MORNING DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE PASS WILL REPEAT WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE N-NE FLOW WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF 10N95W BY EARLY SATURDAY.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 08N78W TO 12N89W TO 11N97W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W TO 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N126W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W...FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 116W AND 123W...AND FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 133W AND 139W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 27N130W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 18N110W. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 110W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ALSO ARE NOTED E OF 110W...EXCEPT IN THE DEVELOPING PLUME OF GAP WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS W OF 100W...MIXED WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 10N...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS TO 9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY W OF 110W LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH THE AREA OF 8 FT SEAS SHIFTING EAST COVERING THE WATERS S OF 07N BETWEEN 93W AND 107W. THEREAFTER INTO EARLY SUNDAY THE AREA OF SWELL MERGES WITH THE PLUME OF GAP WINDS OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION.

A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND 24/0702 UTC INDICATED THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED AT THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRESH SW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY... HOWEVER FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...THE NEXT NW SWELL TRAIN WILL BUILD SEAS TO 13 FT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO THE E-SE REACHING 30N123W TO 26N131W BY EARLY SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N110W AND THE OTHER A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N126W. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING W OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW PRES AREAS AND ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 139W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OF EITHER OF THESE LOW PRESSURE AREAS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$ HUFFMAN

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