000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120918
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 12 2013
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N TO NE 30 TO 40 KT GALE FORCE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE UP TO 45 KT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WITH THE AIDE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW THEN WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY BACK TO 30 TO 35 KT LATER TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER
INCREASE BACK TO 40 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...DIMINISHING BELOW
GALE FORCE BY 48 HOURS. THE LONG DURATION OF THESE WINDS WILL
SEND A PLUME OF NE SWELL TO THE SW-W WELL AWAY FROM THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...REACHING TO 115W BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 17 FT DURING THE
TIME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 07N78W TO 04N9W TO 06N93W. ITCZ FROM 06N93W
TO 09N115W TO 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 160 NM
N OF AXIS FROM 109W AND 116W.
...DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE DOES MANAGE TO
MOVE IT JUST INTO THE NW CORNER TODAY BEFORE STALLING THEN
SHIFTING BACK W OF 140W AS A REMNANT TROUGH SHORTLY THIS
EVENING. SEAS TO 8 FT IN NW SWELL WILL TOUCH 30N140W BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 33N129W
WITH A BROAD RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE SE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH 32N125W TO 14N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURES ALONG THE ITCZ IS TIGHT ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT FRESH TRADES OVER THE W CENTRAL WATERS. NE WIND WAVES
COMBINED WITH LONGER PERIOD NW SWELL IS RESULTING IN 8-9 FT SEAS
W OF A LINE FROM 21N140W TO 15N128W TO 09N140W. THESE SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON AS THE NW
SWELL DECAYS.
TO THE SE OF THE HIGH/RIDGING...SEMI-PERMANENT TROUGHING OVER NW
MEXICO WILL INDUCE FRESH WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SPILLING S TO 20N. CURRENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS
WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 20 KT AND SEAS JUST LESS THAN 8 FT...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STRONG WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG WITHIN
60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N86W TO 09N89W BY THU NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRI AS TRADE WINDS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
INCREASE...THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS BY LATE FRI
AFTERNOON.
$$
DGS
