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AXPZ20 KNHC 282141
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT STRONG GALE FORCE N-NE WINDS OF 40-45 KT N OF 14N IN THE GULF WITH MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHTS TO 22 FT. ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1542 UTC SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 13N96W. THE CARGO SHIP CAP PASLEY CALL SIGN A8NQ6 REPORTED 43 KT NEAR 14.6N 95.2W AT 1800 UTC. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT EXTEND AS FAR S AS 07N BETWEEN 94W- 101W...AND EXTEND AS FAR W AS 11N109W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO EARLY SAT...AND FALL BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO THE 9-12 FT RANGE AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS FURTHER. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF INCREASE AGAIN TO GALE FORCE MON NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH LATE WED.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 08N83W TO 07N89W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N89W TO 07N103W TO 11N116W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 103W AND 114W.


...DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N136W TO 27N140W. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SAT FROM 30N132W TO 24N139W AND WEAKEN FURTHER TO A TROUGH FROM 30N128W TO 22N136W BY SUN. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT ARE PRODUCING COMBINED WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NW WATERS SUN WITH 20-30 KT VEERING WESTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 10-13 FT. NEW BATCH OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE SE ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE SUN NIGHT AND MON WITH COMBINED SEAS TO 21 FT EXPECTED NEAR 32N140W.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRES GRADIENT RELATED TO CARIBBEAN HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN NE 20-30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT ACROSS AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DURING LATE NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH SAT...THEN NOCTURNAL MAX WILL REACH 20-25 KT SAT THROUGH TUE.

$$ MUNDELL

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