716
AXPZ20 KNHC 021550
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Jul 2 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Hurricane Flossie is centered near 19.0N 109.0W at 1500 UTC,
and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds
are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central pressure
is 967 mb. Seas in excess of 12 ft reach as far as 180 nm
in the northern semicircle and 120 nm southern semicircle from
the center of Flossie, with maximum wave heights to 36 ft.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm north and
120 nm south of the center of Flossie. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is elsewhere north of 20.5N within 180 nm of
the coasts from Las Tres Marias and Nayarit to central Sinaloa,
and from 11N to 18N between 103.5W and 107W. Flossie is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Flossie has peaked in intensity, and will move W-NW and
gradually weaken through tonight, then quickly weaken Thu through
Fri. Large swell generated by Flossie will affect portions of
the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California
peninsula and inside the Gulf of California during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause large and dangerous surf
and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N73.5W to 10N86W to 07N94W to
11N111W, then continues southwest of Hurricane Flossie from
14N113W to 07.5N133W. The ITCZ begins near 07.5N133W and
continues beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection related to
Hurricane Flossie, numerous moderate to strong convection is
observed from 03N to 15N east of 97W, and from 03N to 11N between
96W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to
13.5N between 111W and 126W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on Hurricane Flossie.
Elsewhere, a weak ridge extends across the area waters north of
15N and west of 112W, centered on 1024 mb high pressure near
36N137W. This pattern is maintaining moderate to locally fresh
NW winds off Baja California, where combined seas are 4 to 7 ft.
Fresh to locally strong SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted
across the Gulf of California, with strongest winds across the
northern Gulf and highest at the entrance of the Gulf due to
swell from Flossie. Farther south, strong to tropical storm force
winds prevail from the coast of Jalisco and Las Tres Marias
extending offshore to Flossie. Elsewhere conditions continue to
improve, with light to gentle breezes off Oaxaca and across most
of the waters of Guerrero where combined seas are 4 to 7 ft
primarily in mixed S and W swell. The remaining waters off
Mexico from Jalisco to Michoacan and the approach to the Gulf of
California are being impacted by winds and seas from Flossie as
described in the Special Features paragraph.
For the forecast, Flossie is expected to continue moving W-NW and
gradually weaken through tonight, reaching near 19.7N 110.1W
this evening, near 20.6N 111.5W Thu morning as a strong tropical
storm, then become a 45 kt post-tropical low near 21.7N 113.0W
Thu evening, then reach near 23.7N 116.3W Fri evening as a
remnant low. Elsewhere, large swell generated from Flossie will
impact the waters and coasts from Colima and Jalisco to the
central Gulf of California and Baja Sur to Punta Eugenia through
Thu. Expect fresh to strong SE winds through the Gulf of
California today. Looking ahead, fresh to strong E to SE winds
and rough seas are possible off Oaxaca and Guerrero late Fri
through Sun as an area of low pressure moves to the NW off the
coast of southern Mexico.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop
several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few
days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual
development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression
could form over the weekend or early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook
gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation
over the next 48 hours, but a medium chance through 7 days.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A strong tropical wave moving across Central America, and a tight
pressure gradient over the SW Caribbean supports fresh to strong
NE winds across the Papagayo region to northwestern Nicaragua and
downwind to 90W, with associated seas to 8 ft. Moderate to
locally fresh SW to W winds are elsewhere in the Central America
offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia, with moderate seas 5
to 7 ft in S swell. Between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands,
winds are gentle to moderate from the SE to S with 6 to 9 ft
seas in S swell.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will
pulse across the Papagayo region through Thu night. Low pressure
is expected to develop downwind of Papagayo and south of
Tehuantepec by Thu night, producing fresh to locally strong
winds offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through Fri morning.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in
southerly swell are expected. Moderate to large cross equatorial
S to SW swell will affect the waters near the Galapagos Islands
into Thu. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast across the entire
region over the weekend.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence
of a 1024 mb high pressure system centered near 36N137W. The
associated ridge dominates the waters north of 15N and west of
112W, producing gentle to moderate N to NE winds with seas in
the 5 to 7 ft range in mixed swell. South of the monsoon trough
to 05N and between 105W and 120W, fresh to strong SW winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft in S to SW swell prevail. Southerly swell of 7
to 8 ft dominates seas elsewhere across the equatorial zone.
For the forecast, the main issue will be the large southerly
swell persisting south of 10N west of 90W through late in the
week. Fresh to strong SW winds will remain active for the next
several days from 10N to 15N between 105W to 120W, generating
shorter period waves that will mix with the longer period SW
swell in that area.
$$
Stripling
