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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240923
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N100W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N111W 1008 MB TO 09N116W. ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 19N116W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW PRES NEAR 10N111W MAINLY FROM 8.5N TO 11N BETWEEN 108W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION... A 1031 MB HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 34N132W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FROM 10N TO 23N W OF 125W. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 29N BETWEEN 118W-126W. SCATTEROMETER DATA CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL MIGRATE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN WATERS AND DIMINISHING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS SLIGHTLY BY LATE TODAY. AS HIGH PRES MOVES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BUILD S OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NW WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BLOWING ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH MOUNTAIN PASSES ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGER. IN ADDITION...EXPECT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS JUST OFF THE W COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AFFECTING THE AREA FROM 24N TO 28N TO ABOUT 123W WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-12 FT BY MIDDAY TUE.

A NEW COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW WATERS LATE TUE REACHING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST REGION BY TUE NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT COVERING THE AREA NW OF A LINE FROM 30N135W TO 27N140W BY MIDDAY TUE WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE FORECAST WATERS. THE NW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE AND NE WIND WAVES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE THROUGH TUE.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N110W TO A 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 10N111W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. AN ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-25 KT NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO ABOUT 114W. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS LOW. THE TROUGH/LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS OF MAINLY 20 KT AND SEAS OF 8 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES.

LOOKING AHEAD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A GALE TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON WED. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND FORECAST TO EXIT THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH POSSIBLE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MINIMAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WED MORNING THROUGH THU MORNING WITH GALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING PROBABLY THROUGH SAT MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS...WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING FROM 20 TO 23 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE. AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...EXPECT ALSO FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO BEGINING WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.

$$ GR

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