000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290903
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0830 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN CENTERED NEAR 22.1N 118.6W OR ABOUT 370 NM
W OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW OR 300 DEGREES
AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 105 NM NE OF CENTER. INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS INCLUDING COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND
PERSISTENT VERTICAL WILL CAUSE THIS SYSTEM TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 08N ALONG 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION N OF 11N WITHIN 180 NM E OF WAVE AXIS. THE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 KT REACHING NEAR 95W
BY LATE TUE AND 100W WED.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N TO 15N ALONG 110W. A 0515 UTC
ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED SHARP CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
WIND FIELD NEAR 10N112W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W.
THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST AT 15 KT. WEAK LOW PRES AREA EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR WHERE THE WAVE MEETS THE ITCZ AXIS BY EARLY WED.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N97W. THE ITCZ AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N97W TO 10N108W...THEN IS DISCONTINUOUS RESUMING
AT 09N116W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N126W 1012 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 NM W OF LOW NEAR
11N126W.
...DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 30N125W TO
16N125W...DELIVERING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE
RELATIVELY MOIST AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE LOW AT 11N126W.
PERSISTENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH COOLER
WATER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR ARE TOGETHER CONTRIBUTING
TO THE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED WITH TROPICAL STORM HERNAN.
HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR A 1012 MB LOW PRES AREA
NEAR 15N138W BUT AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
INDICATED THAT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PERSISTED WITHIN 240 NM IN
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...DUE TO PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 11 FT
IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA
THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW
OVERNIGHT.
N WINDS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BELOW 8 FT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THEN AGAIN TONIGHT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT DURING
EACH PULSE.
MIXED SW AND SE SWELL FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL WATERS S OF 02N BETWEEN 115W AND 120W
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH TODAY.
$$
CHRISTENSEN
