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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201537
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Sep 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along 97W N OF 10N is moving west at 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a weak low is along the wave axis near 14N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 13N to 17N between 95W and 101W. Global models suggest that environmental conditions are favorable for the low to develop S of Mexico the next few days as it moves further west.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough stretches across the entire basin from the coast of Panama near 09N79W to 14N96W to 11N110W to 11N126W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 09N to 11N between 89W and 102W, and in a small area within 45 nm of 07N79W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge reaches the central part of Baja California near 27N. Low pressure over southern Arizona and an approaching cold front pushing southward along the coast of California will induce fresh to strong SW winds in the northern part of the Gulf of California tonight through early Fri morning, with max seas building to 5-6 ft north of 30N. The local effects will be less evident west of Baja California and south of 29N in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, the possible development of low pressure along the tropical wave currently near 14N97W expected to move W to near 16N103W through Fri will increase winds and seas south of the Mexican coast between 97W and 105W the next few days.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A fairly active monsoon trough along the coast of Central America from Guatemala to Panama will increase convective activity in coastal waters the next few days. Expect SW winds south of the trough axis to gradually strengthen to 10-15 kt and become more westerly by Fri. Further south, gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected to persist south of 05N through the weekend. S to SW swell continues to propagate across the area with seas in the 4 to 6 foot range east of 100W.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Post-tropical remnant low Norma 1008 mb near 22N117W maintains a disorganized swirl of low clouds and stratiform convection, with winds estimated to be 20-25 kt NW of the center and seas to 9 ft. The low will move slowly W to NW and weaken through Friday.

Post-tropical remnant low Otis 1009 mb near 17N130W maintains a swirl of multilayered clouds and stratiform convection. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and 8-10 ft seas are with 120 nm NW of the low center. The low is expected to drift SW and weaken into a trough through Friday, with seas gradually diminishing to 6-7 ft.

NW swell associated with strong N-NW winds north of the area is producing combined seas of 8-9 ft north of a line from 30N120W to 26N140W. This area of 8-9 ft seas is expected to contract and shift slightly eastward through Thu night. Another weaker round of NW swell associated with a cold front west of California is expected to arrive Fri night. High pressure centered well N of the area and lower pressure associated with the convergence zone will maintain moderate trade winds across most of the remainder of the area through the weekend.

$$ Mundell

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