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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191513
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 5N103W TO 3N115W TO 5N125W TO 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 122W-132W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 32N126W TO 20N140W. A 95-120 KT JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH FROM 19N137W TO CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS NW OF A LINE 14N140W TO 3N115W. SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH IS ADVECTING MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 11N117W WITH A RIDGE NE INTO SOUTHERN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING ELY TRADES 15-20 KT WITH SEAS 8-9 FT FROM 9N-15N W OF 113W.

$$ DGS

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