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AXPZ20 KNHC 180905
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HIGH PRES BUILDING W OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INCREASE NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20-25 KT INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON LATE TODAY WITH MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISHING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SAT WITH ONLY 15-20 KT N WINDS EXPECTED BY SAT EVENING.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

ITCZ FROM 7N85W TO 5N100W TO 8N115W TO 6N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 130 NM S OF AXIS FROM 88W-102W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 125W-135W.


...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 32N120W TO 20N124W. SW WINDS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS ADVECTING ABUNDANT MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NW MEXICO. IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 7N132W NE TO 16N101W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ANTICYCLONE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 125W-135W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 8N104W.

SURFACE RIDGE IS N OF 14N W OF 108W. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS FROM 5N-18N W OF 135W WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED NE AND S SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AREA OF NW SWELL TO 8 FT IS N OF 28N BETWEEN 123W-128W. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT SAT.

$$ DGS

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