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AXPZ20 KNHC 030917
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 91W N OF 08N. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 104W FROM 05N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 100W AND 107W.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS NEAR 113W FROM 06N TO 15N. CONVECTION DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION BELOW.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 08N86W TO 07N90W WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 07N103W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 07N105W TO 07N111W. THE ITCZ THEN RESUMES FROM 06N114W TO 05N122W TO 07N130W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 97W AND 100W. NUMEROUS MODERATE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 112W AND 120W.


...DISCUSSION...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OF 1018 MB CENTERED NEAR 28N123W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N109W. LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 11N135.5W HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS N OF THE LOW CENTER. THE FRESH WINDS ARE HELPING TO GENERATE SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW.

A KELVIN WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS HELPED INCREASE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO MAKE MUCH OF THE ITCZ ACTIVE BETWEEN 93W AND 122W AS NOTED IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ITCZ BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS RESULTING FROM THE BREAKDOWN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CYCLOGENESIS AFTERWARDS.

GAP WINDS

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST E OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW HAS HELPED FOR GAP WINDS IN THE 20 KT RANGE WITH WINDS LOCALLY TO 25 KT. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THE EXTENSION OF THE CARIBBEAN LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO EXTEND INTO THE EPAC WITH STRONG GAP WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO NOTED. WINDS WILL PULSE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PEAKING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A MINIMUM IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PULSES OF NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS FAR WEST AS 95W BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT.

$$ AL

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