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AXPZ20 KNHC 131559
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI FEB 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC.


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 30-45 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 15-16 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN MORNING. THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE REINFORCING BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING S ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF UNITED STATES. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS LATE MON MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN LATE MON NIGHT...INCREASING TO GALE FORCE TUE EVENING AT THE LATEST IF NOT SOONER...THEN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THU. THE RESULTANT SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE SE THROUGH SW... MERGING WITH ENE SWELL GENERATED FROM PULSING STRONG WINDS IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA AND PAPAGAYO...MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL AND ALSO MERGING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...RESULTING IN A LARGE AREA OF COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT S OF 13N-14N BETWEEN 92W-93W AND 110W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

W CENTRAL WATERS GALE WARNING...A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC WATERS N OF THE ITCZ. THE WESTERNMOST TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N129W TO 05N131W. BY THIS EVENING...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A 1032 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 35N135W WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...PARTICULARLY FROM 12N TO 15N W OF TROUGH TO 130W. AT THAT TIME...THE TROUGH WILL EXTENDS FROM 18N126W TO 12N127W. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 15-16 FT IN THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THIS TROUGH IS THE REFLECTION OF A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 18N134W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS HELPING TO INDUCE AN AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER BASED ON LIGHTNING DATA.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM FROM 03N88W TO 05N106W TO 04N120W TO 02N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 91W AND 104W AND FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 104W AND 113W.


...DISCUSSION...

A 1031 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 35N133W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE N WATERS TO NEAR 21N112W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS N OF THE ITCZ W OF 120W THROUGH LATE SUN. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS MAINLY W OF 125W-130W AND N OF THE ITCZ OUTSIDE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH.

NW SWELLS WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 8-14 FT COVER THE WATERS W OF 110W. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SWELL EVENT WITH WAVE PERIODS OF 21-23 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE ENTIRE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS...AND WILL REACH THE SW MAINLAND MEXICO COAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...MODERATE NW WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED N OF 25N WITH 2-4 FT SEAS S OF 25N. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL GULF BY SUN EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NW MEXICO TIGHTENS. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT SUN NIGHT.

GAP WIND EVENTS...FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE IN THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO AND ALSO JUST S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA...UP TO 30 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 12 FT SW OF PAPAGAYO BY 24 HOURS...AND TO 10 FT S OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA.

$$ GR

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