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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010222
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 01 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10.5N87W TO 07N103W TO 06N120W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 10N123W TO 06N124W. ITCZ IS FROM 06N125W TO 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FIRST TROUGH...WHILE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SECOND TROUGH.


...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 45N130W. ASCAT IMAGERY AND LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO CONFIRM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW U.S. THIS GRADIENT SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE ADJACENT WATERS MAINLY E OF 129W. SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA IN A MIXED SWELL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND THE LOW AND TROUGH IS GENERATING S-SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 29.5N. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY MORNING.

LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE MOVING SE WHILE WEAKENING BY MID WEEK. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NW SWELL...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-9 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

$$

ERA

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