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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211000
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 05N99W 06N106W 04N112W 06N123W BEYOND 05N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...FROM 02N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 114W AND 122W...AND FROM THE ITCZ TO 10N FROM 125W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 04N77W TO 01N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 04N90W TO 04N94W TO 05N99W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N FROM 90W EASTWARD.

OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01S TO 05S BETWEEN 86W AND 102W.


...DISCUSSION...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N121W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 28N128W AND TO 20N136W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 700 NM TO 800 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST ONE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 16N99W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO...TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N104W...TO 11N115W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N145W TO 22N130W... 18N118W...AND TO 13N104W.

HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA OF THE 33N121W-TO-20N136W TROUGH AND THE 16N99W-TO-11N115W RIDGE. THE MOISTURE REACHES THE MEXICO COAST FROM 19N TO 25N.

TRADEWIND FLOW...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AREA THAT IS ROUGHLY FROM 07N TO 25N FROM 125W WESTWARD WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST WINDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 TO 10 FEET...IN MIXED NW AND SW SWELL AT TIMES...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE 30N125W TO 23N134W TO 09N120W TO 08N140W.

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THIS IS FOR THE AREA FROM 30N NORTHWARD. THE FORECAST STARTS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED FOR 18 HOURS TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS...FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY TO SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER THAN 8 FEET FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THIS AREA SEES A RESURGENCE IN WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY...FROM THE EARLY MORNING HOURS UNTIL SUNRISE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

$$ MT

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