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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230259
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0230 UTC.


....SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1008 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N123W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM IN THE S SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N95W TO 08N97W MOVING W AT 10 KT PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 12N WITHIN 240 NM W OF WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM FROM 10N TO 17N ALONG 126W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT PAST 24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 08N93W. ITCZ FROM 08N93W TO 10N105W TO 1008 MB LOW PRES 11N123W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 140W.


...DISCUSSION... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH AXIS FROM 32N132W TO 18N135W. SUBSIDENCE WAS NOTED OVER THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED A 90-95 KT SUBTROPICAL JET E OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N130W THROUGH 32N125W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N123W AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 97W/98W MENTIONED ABOVE.

A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO NEAR 33N106W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SW ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO 20N120W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N113W WAS MOVING WNW 15 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND ANTICYCLONE. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED AN EASTERLY JET OF 60-70 KT EMERGING OFF THE W COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL PULSE THROUGH INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATER TONIGHT/EARLY WED WITH WINDS REACHING 30 KT DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DRAINAGE ON WED. SEAS WILL BUILD 8 TO 10 FT BY LATE WED MORNING. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PULSE AGAIN WED NIGHT AND THU...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TONIGHTS EVENT.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND NLY WINDS WILL PULSE TO 20-25 KT THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WED THEN DECREASE ON THU.

$$ COBB

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