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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260228
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0228 UTC Wed Apr 26 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC.


...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A surface trough axis extends from 07N78W to 05N85W to 06N93W to 05N101W, where ASCAT winds indicate that the ITCZ forms and and continues west to 05N109W to 03N115W to beyond 05N124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the trough axis between 85W and 90W, and also between 91W and 96W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A tight pressure gradient over the northeast portion of the area is producing strong northwest winds within 60 nm west of the Baja California Peninsula from 25N to 29N, and also north of 29N east of 123W to the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Seas with these winds are in the 8 to 10 ft range, except for 10 to 11 ft seas north of 28N. Long period northwest swell elsewhere north of 21N between 111W and 124W is allowing for combined seas of 8 to 10 ft within this area. The pressure gradient will relax some through Wednesday, then tighten again on Thursday. Expect strong NW winds to spread southward to along 28N and east of 125W on Thursday with seas building to 10 to 13 ft by early Friday.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A gentle onshore breeze is expected during the day, becoming offshore along the coast at night. Combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell is forecast through Thursday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure center analyzed at 32N137W extends a ridge southeastward to near 21N115W. Associated high pressure covers the area north of 15N west of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Baja California with the typical thermal trough that develops is supporting strong northwest winds, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in the northeast part of the area west of the offshore waters situated within 250 nm of the Mexican coast. These winds and seas will change little through Wednesday, then shift west-southwest Wednesday night through Thursday as the high pressure strengthens and the aforementioned ridging builds further to the east. Fresh northeast trades are present south of the ridge and north of the ITCZ, with combined seas to 8 ft in mixed northeast and northwest swell. This area of swell will gradually shift to the extreme western portion of the area by Thursday night. Southern hemispheric swell will approach the equator near the area between 105W and 125W Thursday night, with resultant combined seas of 8 to 9 ft.

$$ Aguirre

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