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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011501
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1309 UTC Wed Mar 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...Special Features...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move into the
northwest Gulf of Mexico later today. The front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico High, reaching the Bay of Campeche Thursday
morning. Northerly winds behind the front will start to funnel
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the morning hours Thursday.
High pressure will build southward over eastern Mexico through
the day Thursday. This will help tighten the pressure gradient
across the area and increase winds to gale force over the Gulf
of Tehuantepec by Thursday night. Gale force winds are expected
to continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sunday
before diminishing below gale force. Seas are expected to build
to around 13 ft Thursday night, and reach near 16 ft on Friday.

Please see the latest NWS high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPNO3 KNHC for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

There is no ITCZ north of the equator.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see above for more on the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale
force gap wind event.

Gentle to moderate northwest winds prevail over the waters off
the west coast of the Baja California peninsula as well as the
Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas
are in the 5-7 ft range off the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula, 2-3 ft over the Gulf of California, and 4-5
ft elsewhere. High pressure building over the Great Basin region
of the United States will help increase winds over the Gulf of
California today. Winds will reach 20 to 25 kt down the length of
the Gulf of California through Thursday. The long fetch of
northwest winds will allow seas to build to 8 ft by early
Thursday over the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail elsewhere over
the offshore waters of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo...Winds will pulse over the area through the
rest of the week and the weekend. Winds will peak near 25 kt
during the late night and early morning hours, and will diminish
to 20 kt or less during the early evening hours. Seas with these
winds will build to around 9 ft early each morning before
subsiding below 8 ft early each evening.

Gulf of Panama...Winds will freshen each night before diminishing
during the late afternoon hours.

Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes will persist through Sunday.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure building north of the area extends a ridge
southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The building high
pressure has freshened trades over the western waters. High
pressure will continue to build to the north of the region
today. This will further tighten the pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure associated to the
equatorial trough, with winds locally reaching near 25 kt over
the western waters generally north of 10N and west of 120W. Seas
to build over much of this area to 8 to 9 ft in a mix of
northeast wind waves and northwest swell. The area of high
pressure will weaken later in the week, loosening the pressure
gradient and diminishing winds late Thursday and Friday. Seas in
the 8 to 9 ft range will linger in the area of fresh trade winds
between 05N and 20N, west of 125W into Saturday before subsiding
through late Saturday.

$$
AL

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