000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151952
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1920 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Colombia near
06N77.5W to 11N93W to 04N125W to 05N129W. The ITCZ continues 
from 05N129W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 79W and 108W, and
from 03N to 07N between 110W and 117W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 130W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate winds prevail across the waters off the Baja California
peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, reaching 
locally fresh speeds off the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Gentle and
variable winds are in the Gulf of California, except gentle to
moderate in the northern Gulf from early gap wind flow. Light to
gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and in 
the 2-4 ft range in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas 
or less, will prevail off the Baja California waters through this
week and into the upcoming weekend, pulsing to locally strong 
near Cabo San Lucas at night through Thu morning. Pulsing 
moderate to locally fresh gap winds will push through the 
mountain passages of Baja California into the Gulf of California 
at night through Thu night. Gentle to locally moderate winds and
moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open offshore 
waters of Mexico through late this week.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
several hundred nautical miles to the south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec within the next couple of days. Gradual development 
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest 
or northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through 
early next week. Regardless of development, increasing winds and 
seas are possible across that area toward the end of the week and
into the upcoming weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate winds are both north of and south of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except up to 6 ft
offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Active convection 
persists from offshore Colombia to the waters south of Costa 
Rica, with the potential for locally higher winds and seas there.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast 
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of 
the monsoon trough, through the end of the week. Southerly swell 
moving through the regional waters will support seas of 4-6 ft 
through the remainder of the week, building to 6-8 ft offshore 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
several hundred nautical miles to the south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec within the next couple of days, possibly increasing 
winds and seas in the offshore waters of Guatemala and El 
Salvador toward the end of the week and into the upcoming 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate tradewinds north of 08N to near 
22N and west of 118W. Seas in this area are in the 5-7 ft range.
Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere north of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle 
to locally moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough 
where seas are in the 5-6 ft range, except to 7 ft south of the 
Equator.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone north of the 
ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W through the forecast period.
Winds will freshen in the tradewind zone north of the ITCZ and
west of 130W later in the week, locally strong at times. The NE 
wind waves generated from these trades will mix with a set of
southerly swell to build seas to 7-9 ft by the end of the week 
through the weekend. A couple of sets of northerly swell may 
approach 30N by Fri afternoon, possibly building seas to around 8
ft north of 28N at times.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form 
several hundred nautical miles to the south of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec within the next couple of days. Gradual development 
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over
the weekend while the system moves slowly to the west-northwest 
or northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico through 
early next week. Regardless of development, increasing winds and 
seas are possible across that area toward the end of the week and
into the upcoming weekend. 

$$
Lewitsky