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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion


392 
AXPZ20 KNHC 082102
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica at 
09N84W to 10N116W. The ITCZ extends from 10N116W to 10N129W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
07N-12N between 113W-130W. Isolated moderate convection is
occurring from 07N-10N between 85W-107W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure extends from a 1027 mb high at 39N130W 
southeastward to 14N98W. Winds are light to moderate over 
forecast waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell over Pacific waters 
southward to Manzanillo, 6-7 ft in SW swell from Manzanillo to 
the Mexico- Guatemala border, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, a late season N gap wind event should begin 
Fri night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are expected to 
reach gale force beginning Sat afternoon and possibly last 
through Mon morning. Elsewhere, weak ridging over the waters west
of the Baja California peninsula will promote gentle to moderate
winds over forecast waters from Puerto Angel westward through 
the weekend. Looking ahead, on Mon and Tue stronger offshore 
ridging should enhance the NW winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula to fresh conditions. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are light to gentle across the forecast waters. Seas are 
6-7 ft in S swell over the equatorial zones, and 5-6 ft in SW 
swell over the Central American zones.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds across the forecast 
waters will persist into the weekend. Looking ahead, E gap winds 
over the Gulf of Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong
speeds starting Sun night into early next week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge of high pressure extends from a 1027 mb high at 39N130W 
southeastward to 14N98W. The weak pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing 
only moderate to fresh NE trades with seas 7-8 ft in mixed wind 
waves and N swell from 09N-15N west of 110W. Elsewhere, winds are
gentle to moderate and seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, a slightly stronger ridge will produce a 
larger area of fresh NE winds and seas 8-9 ft between 07N-21N 
west of 128W on Sat and Sun. By early next week, a further
increase in the strength of the ridge may cause the NE trades to
be fresh to strong over an expanded area north of 10N and west 
of 115W. 


$$ 
Landsea