000
AXNT20 KNHC 181804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1750 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 05N20W and 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 
05N26W, to 04N37W, to the Equator along 42W, to 01N50W. 
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is in southern Georgia, to southern Alabama,
through SE Louisiana, reaching the Deep South of Texas/extreme NE
coastal Mexico. A surface trough is in the coastal plains of the 
upper Texas Gulf coast. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 27N northward from 92W eastward.

A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through 
20N100W, through the northern sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to the Gulf of Honduras. No 
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the 
satellite imagery.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 27N to 29N between 88W and 95W.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of
Mexico. Moderate to rough seas are from 24N southward between NW
Cuba and the offshore waters of the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of 
Mexico from 92W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the
Gulf of Mexico. 

Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are in the Gulf 
of Mexico from 89W westward including in the coastal plains of 
Mexico; and in parts of the NW Caribbean Sea from 19N southward 
from 85W westward that includes in the Gulf of Honduras. The 
visibilities are being reduced in some cases.

A weak stalled out front extends from southeastern Louisiana to 
the extreme NE coast of Mexico. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are over the Gulf waters from Louisiana to the western Florida 
panhandle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and north
of the front. The front will transition back to a cold front and 
shift eastward across the northern Gulf through early Sun, then 
stall again and weaken gradually through Mon. Upper- level 
disturbances moving from W to E across the Gulf coast states will 
maintain active weather over the northern Gulf through the 
weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate 
the basin through early Sun, pulsing to locally strong near the 
Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche. Winds will slightly 
weaken Sun into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. 
Meanwhile, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in 
Mexico continue across most of the western Gulf and Bay of 
Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE return flow will develop 
again across the W Gulf Tue and Wed. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are in the Gulf 
of Mexico from 89W westward including in the coastal plains of 
Mexico; and in parts of the NW Caribbean Sea from 19N southward 
from 85W westward that includes in the Gulf of Honduras. The 
visibilities are being reduced in some cases.

A surface trough is along 22N71W in the Atlantic Ocean, through
the Windward Passage, to 14N76W in the central Caribbean Sea.
Rainshowers are possible with this feature. 

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are to the east of the surface
trough; and from 15N southward to the west of the surface trough.
Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are elsewhere to the west of the 
surface trough. Rough seas are in the Yucatan Channel, and in the
NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 17N northward from 85W
westward. Mostly moderate seas, with some areas of moderate to 
rough seas, are from 15N southward between 71W and 80W. The sea
heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet in much of the rest of the
area. Some exceptions are for slight seas in the coastal waters of
SE Cuba, and off the SE coast of Nicaragua.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
is within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 18/1200 UTC, are: 0.07 in Trinidad; and 0.06 in San Juan in 
Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

A weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward along 24N-25N 
into the NW Bahamas. The associated pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressure over SE Mexico is supporting fresh to 
strong SE winds across the Gulf of Honduras, and fresh to locally 
strong E winds in the south-central Caribbean. Strong winds in the
Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun morning, reaching near 
gale-force this evening into Sat morning and again Sat night. 
Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela
and offshore Colombia through Mon night. High pressure from the 
eastern Atlantic will build westward Wed and Wed night leading to 
increasing trade winds over most of the central and eastern 
Caribbean. Dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central 
America continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and 
is significantly reducing visibility across the Gulf of Honduras. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Three separate surface troughs, and nearby rainshowers, are from 
20N northward from 40W westward. Slight to moderate seas are from 
21N to 30N between 30W and 70W. Moderate seas are elsewhere. Fresh
to strong NE winds, with some moderate, are from 18N southward 
between 39W and 60W. Moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 23N 
southward between 37W and 60W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE 
winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 40W eastward. 
Mostly gentle winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A frontal trough extends from 31N59W southwestward to 26N70W and 
northwestward to 30N80W. Clusters of scattered showers and 
thunderstorms continue along the front E of 65W. The cold front 
will move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon, with 
active weather expected to continue ahead of the front through 
Sun. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are 
expected across most of the area through Sun night as weak high 
pressure extends E to W roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will 
sink southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida 
early Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue.
A residual trough may linger from near 30N71W to the central 
Bahamas Wed and Wed night. 

$$
mt/ja