000
AXNT20 KNHC 130501
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue May 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0450 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 10N14W and extends to near 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 
07N18W to 02N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N
to 10N between 50W and 56W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within
120 nm of the ITCZ. 

GULF OF AMERICA...

The earlier analyzed frontal boundary has decayed into a surface
trough over the Florida Peninsula. Outside of a few scattered
showers and tstorms across South Florida, the Florida Keys, and
adjacent waters, active weather has shifted into the Atlantic.
1016 mb high pressure centered near 24N90W prevails across the
Gulf. SE to S winds are pulsing to moderate to fresh speeds off
Tampico, Mexico. S winds are mainly moderate elsewhere in the W
Gulf waters, and off the coast of SE Louisiana as indicate in the
latest scatterometer data. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. 
Seas are 3-6 ft across the Gulf.

For the forecast, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
along with gusty winds are possible in the Florida Straits
overnight tonight. Fresh to strong southerly winds with moderate 
to rough seas related to a building high over the southeastern 
Gulf will occur in the northwestern Gulf and off the Mexico/Texas
border early Tue through Thu. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

Strong to near-gale force trades are pulsing in the south-central
Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, as captured by the latest
satellite scatterometer pass. Peak seas are currently to 11 ft.
Moderate to fresh trades persist in the rest of the central and SW
Caribbean, with 8-11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades are in the
E Caribbean, with 5-8 ft seas. A surface trough located just west
of the Lesser Antilles is producing a few showers across the
islands. In the NW Caribbean, light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft 
seas prevail. Scattered showers are in the region in the vicinity 
of a surface trough across the region.

For the forecast, widespread fresh to strong easterly winds will 
persist across the central Caribbean through Tue as a tight 
pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high 
pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds offshore from northwestern
Colombia and at the Gulf of Venezuela will occasionally gust to 
gale force. Rough seas will accompany these winds offshore from 
northwestern Colombia. Winds and seas are expected to gradually 
diminish Tue night through Wed. Fresh winds with moderate to rough
seas are also expected at the northeastern basin through Tue 
evening, including the Atlantic passages. Finally, pulsing fresh 
to strong E winds will occur in the Gulf of Honduras by Wed 
afternoon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 31N between 76W and
80W, including the western Bahamas and east coast of Florida. SE
winds in this area are moderate to fresh, with 4-7 ft seas. This 
active weather continues ahead of a surface trough analyzed over 
the Florida Peninsula. A weak surface trough is analyzed from 
31N58W to 26N67W. The remainder of the Atlantic is influenced by
1026 mb high pressure centered near 31N39W. The most recent
scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades south of 20N
and gentle to moderate trades north of 20N across the basin. Seas
are 7-10 ft south of 20N in the area of fresh winds, and 4-7 ft
elsewhere in open waters.  

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SE winds and 
rough seas will linger offshore of Florida through Tue morning as 
a surface trough moves eastward toward the western Atlantic. 
Occasional gusts to near-gale force will be possible offshore of 
northern Florida tonight. As the trough moves into the western 
Atlantic on Tue, and winds will turn to the W behind the boundary 
and weaken, before the trough lifts northeastward out of the 
region on Wed. Farther south, pulsing fresh to strong E winds are 
expected each afternoon and evening offshore of northern 
Hispaniola through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh trade
winds and rough seas in mixed NE and SE swell will prevail south 
of 25N this week, including across the Atlantic passages into the 
eastern Caribbean

$$
Mahoney