673 
AXNT20 KNHC 131031
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Jun 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, portions of 
the Florida Peninsula, and the western Atlantic: Abundant 
tropical moisture is surging northward from the western Caribbean,
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, also over portions of 
Florida, and across the adjacent western Atlantic waters. This 
moisture resides to the southeast of a surface trough that 
extends from near 31N78W southwestward to east-central Florida 
just north of Cape Canaveral to an elongated area of low pressure 
(Invest AL90) with a mean position just offshore Port Canaveral
with a pressure of 1010 mb. A surface trough continues from this 
elongated area of low pressure southwestward to near Sarasota, 
Florida to 25N86W and to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Also, 
upper-level diffluent flow present across the region. As a result,
numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are present 
southeast of the trough over the western Atlantic from 25N to 31N 
between 70W and 76W and south of 26N west of 76W including the 
Straits of Florida, the majority of the Florida Key, over central 
Cuba and its adjacent waters. In addition numerous thunderstorms 
are quickly developing over the Yucatan Peninsula extending north 
to near 24N between 87W and 90W. Cloud to surface lightning, 
strong gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility are ongoing 
within this convective activity over these areas. The shower and 
thunderstorm activity is expected to continue across the region 
through Fri. Mariners transiting these regions should exercise 
caution. Please refer to bulletins and forecasts from your local 
weather forecast offices for specific local information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 
03N to 14N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The moisture
associated with this wave is vividly depicted in the CIMSS Total 
Precipitable Water (TPW) satellite animation. Scattered showers 
are near the northern part of this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 02N 
to 15N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection 
is presently noted with this wave as it is moving through a stable
surrounding environment that consists of the Saharan Air Layer. 
However, a pocket of scattered showers and thunderstorms is seen 
moving westward to the southwest of the wave south of 02N between 
41W and 45W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W south of
13N to well inland Colombia. It is moving near 10 kt. Small 
isolated showers are near the wave axis from 05N to 09N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W south of
15N, moving westward at 10 kt. Related scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the eastern Pacific near the 
coast of Panama.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal plains of the 
southwest part of Senegal to 10N26W. Overnight scatterometer data
indicates that the ITCZ begins at 09N29W and continues to near 
07N40W. Numerous moderate to strong convection emerging off 
West Africa is from 05N to 10N between the coast and about 19W.
This convection is most likely in advance of the next tropical 
wave.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information about 
heavy rainfall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

A stationary front extends from northeast Florida to just south 
of Louisiana, and westward from there to inland Texas near 
Houston/Galveston area. Elsewhere, as described above, a surface 
trough extends from near Sarasota, Florida to 25N86W and to the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Numerous thunderstorms are quickly 
developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and reach northward to
near 24N between 87W and 90W. Overnight ASCAT satellite data 
passes revealed light to gentle generally variable winds west of 
the trough, with moderate to fresh south to southwest winds east 
of the trough, locally higher in any convection. Seas are 1 to 3 
ft west of the trough, and 3 to 4 ft east of the trough, except to
5 ft near the Yucatan Channel due to a southeast swell. Hazy 
conditions are over the SW Gulf due to ongoing agricultural fires 
are in Mexico.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough is expected to 
gradually weaken through late Fri while the low pressure moves 
northeastward to offshore of the southeastern U.S. Looking ahead, 
a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system and a 
tropical depression could form during the early or middle part 
of next week while it moves slowly westward or west-
northwestward. Increasing winds and building seas are expected 
with this system. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure, lower 
pressures in the deep tropics, and the trough of low pressure
across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is resulting in moderate to
fresh east to southeast winds over most of the basin, with the
exception of the central basin, where winds are fresh to strong,
including between Cuba and Jamaica. Seas range from 7 to 9 ft 
over the central Caribbean and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 3 to 5
ft east of 65W and also over the southwestern Caribbean.

The eastern segment of the E Pacific monsoon trough stretches 
from Central America southeastward to 11N80W and to northwest 
Colombia. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are between
northwest Colombia and southern Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure located NE of the area combined 
with the Colombian low and the passage of tropical waves will 
support fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean 
through tonight. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are expected 
over the northwestern Caribbean likely through Fri as a trough of 
low pressure remains over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue 
across portions of the northwestern Caribbean through the rest of 
the week as a surge of tropical moisture persists across the 
region. Looking ahead, expect increasing winds and building seas 
over the western Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, over 
the upcoming weekend as a broad area of low pressure is forecast 
to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above for more 
information about the heavy rainfall over the western Atlantic
and near and over portions of the Florida peninsula.

A stationary front extends from low pressure of 1015 mb that is
well north of the area near 34N71W southwestward to near 
Jacksonville, Florida. Deep convection over the western Atlantic 
is described above. Fresh to locally strong winds and 5 to 7 ft 
seas are within 180-240 nm southeast of the front. A surface 
trough supported by an upper-level is analyzed from near 30N42W 
to 23N47W and to 15N53W. The upper-level low is identified on 
satellite water vapor imagery to be near 27.5N47W. Broken to 
overcast mostly mid-level clouds with embedded increasing 
scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 22N to 30N 
between 41W and 46W. A weak trough extends from 31N59W to 26N58W 
and to 20N56W. An overnight ASCAT satellite pass nicely captured 
the northeast to southeast wind shift across the trough axis. 
These winds consist of gentle to moderate speeds. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 20N to 24N 
between 50W and 57W.

Other than the features above, strong high pressure of 1032 mb 
located well north of the discussion area in the vicinity of the 
Azores has an associated ridge that reaches southwestward to the 
central Bahamas, disrupted by the troughs. Mainly gentle to 
moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft seas dominate the basin west
of 35W, and also south of 14N and east of 35W. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds are north of 14N and east of 35W, except for fresh to
strong northeast winds that are present generally from the Cabo 
Verde Islands to the Canary Islands, including along the coast of 
Africa. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Saharan Air dominates
the lower to middle atmosphere across the Atlantic from about 10N
to 20N and roughly between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast west of 55W, some gradual development is possible
with the elongated area of low pressure near the east coast of 
Florida, and that has an associated 1010 mb low just offshore 
Port Canaveral as discussed above under the Special Features 
section during the next couple of days, despite strong upper-
level winds, while the system moves northeastward offshore of the
southeastern U.S. coast. The deep convection related to this 
feature will be numerous in coverage and contain gusty winds and 
frequent lightning at times over most of the western part of the 
forecast waters, mainly west of a line from 31N68W to 26N71W to 
central Cuba. Expect for little change with this convective 
activity through at least Fri. Fresh to strong southerly winds are
expected over the western Atlantic ahead of this system during 
the next couple of days. High pressure will build southward over 
the western Atlantic beginning this weekend and into early next 
week. 

$$
Aguirre