000
AXNT20 KNHC 111040
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun May 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1025 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. 
The ITCZ stretches from 04N19W to 00N30W to 00N49W. Scattered 
moderate convection is present south of 06N and between Africa and
NE Brazil.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from a 1011 mb low pressure centered 
over central Mississippi to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, with gusty winds 
near gale force in the strongest thunderstorms, are ahead of the 
front over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds 
prevail across the eastern Gulf ahead of the front, with 3-5 ft 
seas. West of the front, moderate or weaker winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to occasionally strong S-SE winds
are expected this morning and afternoon ahead of the front. 
Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh W-NW winds will occur behind 
the cold front across the western Gulf today and Mon. Looking 
ahead, the front is slated to exit the basin early next week, 
allowing high pressure to build in the Gulf of America. Fresh to 
locally strong southerly flow is forecast in the NW Gulf waters 
Tue into Wed. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A stationary front over Yucatan is producing a line of showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, especially west of
85W. Similar convection is noted in the SW Caribbean. Generally
dry conditions are seen elsewhere. The subtropical ridge north of
the Caribbean supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds in 
the central portion of the basin. Seas in these waters are 7-10 
ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are 
occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and 
slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the Greater Antilles will
force fresh to strong easterly trade winds across the central 
Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, through early 
next week. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible 
offshore of NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas 
will accompany these winds, with the highest seas expected near 
and to the west of the strongest winds. Elsewhere, moderate to 
fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the eastern 
Caribbean during the next several days. Rough seas are expected 
through the Atlantic passages in the Leeward Islands early in the 
week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge located between Bermuda and the Azores. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate to rough seas south of 25N and east of 65W. Moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted off
Florida, especially west of 77W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds
are forecast today off Florida as the pressure gradient tightens 
between high pressure in the western Atlantic and a complex low 
pressure system in the SE United States. Strong S to SE winds and 
locally rough seas are expected Mon into early Tue offshore 
central and N Florida ahead of a cold front associated with the 
low pressure system. The cold front will enter the western 
Atlantic and lift northeastward by midweek. The building 
subtropical ridge will support moderate to fresh trade winds and 
moderate to rough seas for areas south of 25N through much of the 
workweek. 

$$
Delgado