000
AXNT20 KNHC 111617
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun May 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The 
ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 13W and 23W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N
between 26N and 46W.  

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is E of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds are E
of the front and N of 26N. Moderate winds are elsewhere E of the 
front. Gentle to moderate winds are W of the front. Seas are 4-6
ft E of the front, and 3-5 ft W of the front. 

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms along and east of the
stationary front will continue through Mon, producing locally 
stronger winds and higher seas. The front will drift eastward 
early this week, exiting the basin on Tue. Farther west, a trough 
will move across the northern Gulf of America tonight through 
Mon, supporting pulsing moderate to fresh W to NW winds across the
northern basin into Tue. High pressure will build across the Gulf
by midweek. A tightening pressure gradient between deepening low 
pressure in the central United States and the aforementioned high 
will support fresh to locally strong S winds offshore of Texas and
Mexico Tue through late week.

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure N of the
area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in
the central Caribbean. Moderate winds are in the E Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds are in the W Caribbean. Seas are in the
7-11 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough to very 
rough seas are expected across the central Caribbean, including 
through the Windward Passage, through early Wed as a tight 
pressure gradient prevails between a ridge of high pressure to 
the north and the Colombian low. Periods of near-gale force winds 
will be possible offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of 
Venezuela each afternoon and night. Pulsing moderate to fresh E 
winds and locally rough seas are likely across the Atlantic 
Passages into the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Winds and 
seas will slowly diminish by late week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters, anchored
by a 1031 mb high centered near 34N42W. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail S of 22N between 15W and 16W. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range E of 60W, and 4-6 
ft W of 60W. 

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh SE winds will 
prevail offshore of Florida and north of the Greater Antilles 
today. Fresh to strong SE to S winds are expected to develop 
tonight and continue into Tue offshore of central and northern 
Florida as a tightening pressure gradient develops between high 
pressure in the western Atlantic and a low pressure in the 
southeastern United States. A cold front associated with the low 
pressure system will move offshore of the southeastern U.S. on 
Tue and meander through midweek, before weakening and lifting 
northeastward. Pulsing moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
south of 25N this week. Locally rough seas in NE swell will 
impact the waters near the Lesser Antilles and across the passages
into the Caribbean through late week. 

$$
AL