000
AXNT20 KNHC 162344
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri May 17 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W SW to 07N22W where the ITCZ
begins and then contiues SW to 01N38W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from 0N to 08N between 10W and 20W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 0N to 10N between 43W and 56W.  

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The tail of a cold front extends from Venice, Florida NW to 27N84W where
it transitions to a warm front that reaches NE of Houston, Texas.
Heavy showers and thunderstorms are in the NE Gulf north of 27N
being supported by middle to upper level diffluent flow. West of
87W, winds are moderate to locally fresh from the SE and seas are
moderate. East of 87W, winds are light to gentle and seas are
slight. Otherwise, areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural 
fires in Mexico continues across most of the western Gulf and Bay 
of Campeche.

For the forecast, the warm front will continue lifting northward 
through Fri, perhaps stall near the coast. A series of upper- 
level disturbances moving from W to E should help keep active 
weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, 
except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and 
the Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken 
Sun into early next week as the gradient relaxes.  

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient related to high pressure north of the area is 
supporting fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras and
moderate to fresh in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are
moderate to 6 ft in both the SW and NW Caribbean, and slight
elsewhere where winds are gentle to moderate from the east to 
southeast. Otherwise, haze due to agricultural fires in Central 
America continues across areas of the NW Caribbean while smoke is
reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras. 

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will 
persist through Sun, reaching near gale-force speeds Fri evening 
into Sat morning and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will 
pulse at night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia 
through Sun evening. Moderate to rough seas are expected with 
these winds. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere 
through early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N69W southwestward to Boyton Beach, 
Florida. A swath of scattered showers and isolated tstms are ahead
of the front, currently affecting the central Bahamas offshore 
waters and the north-central offshores between 63W and 68W.
Gentle to moderate W to NW winds follow the front along with
moderate seas to 7 ft. Ahead of the front, N of 26N and to 62W,
winds are moderate to fresh from the SW and seas are moderate to 
rough to 9 ft. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of the Azores High and associated ridge, which
is being intersected by a dissipating stationary front that
extends from 31N44W to 22N57W. The ridge is providing light to
gentle winds in the central subtropical waters and gentle to
moderate NE winds across the NE subtropical waters. Seas are
moderate to 7 ft across these two regions. In the central tropical
Atlantic, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, trade winds are
moderate to fresh and seas moderate. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from near 
31N68W to 27N76W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it reaches 
from near 31N65W to 26N74W Fri night, from near 31N63W to 26N70W 
early Sat afternoon and shift east of 55W by early Sun evening. 
Fresh to strong southerly winds ahead of the front will continue 
through Fri afternoon, then at fresh speeds Fri night diminishing 
Sat afternoon. Active weather is expected to continue ahead of the
front. Conditions will improve Fri night into Sat as the front 
dissipates. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are 
expected through Sun. 

$$
Ramos