000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011001
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 01 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W, to the north of 04N,
moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 08N to
12N. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N
to 11N between 93W and 94W. An overnight ASCAT pass displayed
fresh east to southeast winds E of the wave axis to near 91W and
from 10N to 13N. A few wind barbs of strong speeds were embedded
within these winds. Active convection is expected to continue
with this system through the weekend and into early next week
while it moves slowly westward, and well to the south of the
coast of Mexico. However, development of this system appears
unlikely.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to
11N86W to 10N95W to 08N107W to 09N118W to a 1010 mb low near
09N127W and to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted within 120 nm north of the trough between
94W and 98W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 180 nm south of the trough between 124W and 130W, and
within 60 nm north of the trough between 124W and 128W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm
south of the trough between 94W and 96W and also between 113W and
115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of
the trough between 122W and 124W, and within 30 nm north of the
trough between 113W and 115W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from high pressure centered well north of the
region near 34N147W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough
over north central Mexico is supporting moderate northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail
over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the 7-8
ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6-7 ft off
Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico,
seas are in the 4-5 ft range in southwest swell. Seas of 3 ft or
less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions persist
off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to
agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central America.
Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or less.
Satellite imagery shows a convective thunderstorms complex of
numerous strong intensity increasing in size as it tracks in a
general southwestward direction offshore southern Mexico and out
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Frequent lightning is
occurring with this complex. Very rough seas can be expected with
it as well. Mariners should be alert of this convective activity
during transit over or near the Gulf.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh northwest to north winds
will prevail off the Baja California waters through early next
week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail across the
open waters. Seas will be in the range of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell
off of Baja California Norte through Mon. Hazy conditions, dense
at times, may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central
America.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to locally fresh east gap winds prevail across the Gulf
of Papagayo region and extend across most of the waters of
Nicaragua to near 89W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range across the Papagayo
region, and 4-6 ft in southwest swell elsewhere. Hazy conditions
continues off the Central American coast due to agricultural
fires in southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may
decrease at times to around 5 nm or less.
For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh E gap winds will
continue across the Papagayo region and most of Nicaragua waters
through early Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke caused
by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce
visibilities over portions of the Central American offshore
waters during the next few days.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A ridge extends from high pressure centered near 34N147W to near
the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the
ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 25N
and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the
ITCZ. Seas of 6-8 ft in north to northeast swell prevail across
all but the far NW waters, where seas of 5-6 ft exist. Northerly
swell is producing seas of 8-9 ft over the waters N of 25N
between 118W and 127W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 5-6
ft prevail S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough.
For the forecast, little change is expected to the current
conditions over much of the area the next few days. The active
convection along the ITCZ will gradually shift westward and
weaken through the rest of the weekend. Low pressure may form
over the far western part of the area today and track westward
into Sun.
$$
Aguirre
