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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Oct 2 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Orlene, which is near Las Islas Marias near southwestern
Mexico.
1. South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Satellite imagery also indicates that the surface
circulation has become better defined. If these trends continue, a
tropical depression is likely to form Monday or Monday night while
the system moves slowly northward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
2. South of southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a disorganized area
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be somewhat conducive for gradual development during
the next several days. The low is forecast to move generally
west-northwestward during the next couple of days, but could turn
northwestward toward the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Forecaster Roberts