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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of
hundred miles to the south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Although recent satellite wind data indicates that the system
still does not have a well-defined center, environmental conditions
appear favorable for development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within a day or two while the system moves generally
westward near 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. Southwest of southern Baja California:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is still producing a few showers
and thunderstorms. Conditions do not appear to be conducive for
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
3. South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some gradual
development is possible by the upcoming weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Pasch