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BULLETIN
Hurricane Otis Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023
 
...OTIS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...
...CATASTROPHIC DAMAGE LIKELY WHERE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE MOVES 
ONSHORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 99.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Maldonado westward to Zihuatanejo
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Lagunas de Chacahua to Punta Maldonado
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern and southwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of Otis.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Otis was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 99.7 West. Otis is moving toward
the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion
is expected through for the next day or so, with landfall
forecast overnight or early on Wednesday in southern Mexico.
 
Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts.  Otis is a 
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  
Otis is forecast to remain a category 5 hurricane through landfall, 
and rapid weakening is then forecast due to the higher terrain of 
Mexico. Otis will likely dissipate over southern Mexico on 
Wednesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb (27.38 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Otis can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP3.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the
hurricane warning area by late tonight and early Wednesday, with 
extremely destructive winds near the core.  Tropical storm 
conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning 
areas soon, and then spread northwestward within the warning areas 
through Wednesday.  Winds affecting the upper floors of high-rise 
buildings will be significantly stronger than those near ground 
level.

STORM SURGE:  A potentially catastrophic storm surge is expected to
produce life-threatening coastal flooding near and to the east of
where the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Otis is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16
inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches through Thursday across
Guerrero and the western coastal sections of Oaxaca.  This rainfall
will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas
of higher terrain.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Otis will affect portions of the southern
coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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