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Hurricane Otis Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182023
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023
 
Otis has undergone very rapid intensification today.  An eye became
apparent on visible satellite images only a few hours ago, embedded 
in very deep convection.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
penetrated the eye around 1900 UTC and again around 2000 UTC, and 
found that the maximum sustained winds had increased to near 110 kt 
over a very small area near the center, while the central pressure 
remarkably dropped around 10 mb from the first to the second center 
fix.  The intensity of Otis is well above the Dvorak satellite 
estimates, and again underscores the value of aerial reconnaissance 
in monitoring hurricanes.
 
Otis should remain in an atmospheric and oceanic environment
that will be conducive for further strengthening later today and
tonight.  Vertical wind shear should not be too strong, with SSTs
near 30 deg C.  Based on the observed changes, the short-term  
official intensity forecast remains above the model guidance.  The 
system is now forecast to be at extremely dangerous Category 4 
hurricane status by the time it reaches the coast of southern Mexico 
late tonight or tomorrow morning.  After landfall, the system 
should weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of Mexico.
 
The hurricane continues on about the same heading, or around 330/7
kt.  For the next couple of days, Otis should move between a
mid-level ridge to the east and northeast and a trough to its
northwest.  The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and is a little faster than the dynamical consensus.
On this track, the center of the hurricane will make landfall
within the hurricane warning area late tonight or early Wednesday.

Key Messages:
 
1. Otis is forecast to be an extremely dangerous Category 4 
hurricane when it reaches the southern coast of Mexico late tonight 
or early Wednesday, and preparations to protect life and property 
should be rushed to completion.

2. A dangerous, life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce 
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the 
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be 
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
3. Heavy rains from Otis will continue to impact areas of southwest
Mexico this week.  This rainfall will produce flash and urban 
flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 15.3N  99.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.5N 100.8W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
 36H  26/0600Z 18.1N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 48H  26/1800Z 18.4N 102.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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