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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
600 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023
 
...LIDIA MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 112.7 West.  Lidia is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A faster 
northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected on Monday and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach
the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Lidia is expected to
be a hurricane before it approaches the coast of west-central
Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml

RAINFALL:  Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, western portions of the
state of Nayarit and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in
southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
near the coast.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. 
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
late Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Tuesday.  
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch 
areas beginning Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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