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BULLETIN
Hurricane Lidia Advisory Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023
 
...LIDIA STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 107.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM WSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has modified the Hurricane Warning to
extend from Manzanillo to El Roblito and extended the Tropical
Storm Warning southward to Punta San Telmo.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Manzanillo to El Roblito
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* El Roblito to Mazatlan
* Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the
progress of Lidia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.8 West. Lidia is moving
toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
east-northeast motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast
track, the center of Lidia should make landfall within the hurricane
warning area in west-central Mexico this evening or overnight.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast today and
Lidia could be near major hurricane strength as it approaches the
west-central coast of Mexico.  Rapid weakening is expected after
Lidia moves inland.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the
state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
later this afternoon. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning areas beginning this
afternoon.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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