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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lidia Advisory Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023
 
...LIDIA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 112.4W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Las
Islas Marias.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to Mazatlan
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya
* Manzanillo to Playa Perula
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico and the southern portion
of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
Lidia.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lidia was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 112.4 West. Lidia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster
northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected later today
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should
approach Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on
Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night.
 
Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 
65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast 
later today and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane 
when it approaches Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central 
Mexico.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 
inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the 
state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and 
coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These 
rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with 
possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast.  
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where
the center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the warning area
by Tuesday.  Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength for the warning area by early Tuesday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area by late Tuesday, with tropical
storm conditions possible on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas beginning Tuesday.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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