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TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152023
1500 UTC SAT OCT 07 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  90SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 112.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 112.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  90SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  80SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  70SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.6N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.1N 110.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 21.6N 105.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.9N 102.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 112.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HOGSETT/BERG
 
 
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