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TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152023
2100 UTC FRI OCT 06 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 111.2W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.4N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.2N 113.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.7N 112.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  70SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 109.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 111.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER DELGADO/D. ZELINSKY
 
 
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