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TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152023
2100 UTC THU OCT 05 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE  30SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 109.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.2N 111.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 113.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.0N 113.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 18.3N 113.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 109.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
 
 
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