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TROPICAL STORM LIDIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152023
1500 UTC TUE OCT 03 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 107.6W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 107.6W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.1N 108.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 109.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.9N 110.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 15.9N 112.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.9N 114.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 107.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/STEVENSON
 
 
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