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Hurricane Lidia Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023
 
Lidia has become better organized this evening, with an increase in
deep convection and banding near the center.  An 0122 UTC SSMIS
microwave overpass revealed a well-defined mid-level center that
could be slight tilted from the low-level center.  The upper-level
outflow has also become a little better established over the western
portion of the system.  Subjective Dvorak data T-numbers from TAFB
and SAB are both T4.0 (65 kt), and the objective estimates are
close to that value as well.  Based on the increase in organization
and recent subjective and objective estimates, the initial
intensity is raised to 65 kt, making Lidia a hurricane.
 
The initial motion estimate is east-northeast or 065 kt degrees at
9 kt. Lidia should accelerate east-northeastward ahead of mid- to
upper-level trough approaching from the northwest.  On this
motion, the center of Lidia will approach the west-central coast of
Mexico on Tuesday.  This storm is forecast to move inland along
the west-central coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
by Tuesday evening.  The track guidance is in good agreement, but
it has again trended slightly south.  The updated NHC forecast has
been nudged in that direction, and it lies close to the TVCE
multi-model consensus aid.
 
Low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs along the track of Lidia
is likely to allow for significant strengthening while the storm
heads toward west-central Mexico.  The global and regional
dynamical models nearly unanimously call for significant deepening
during the next 12-24 hours, and the latest NHC intensity forecast
is a little higher than before.  This is near the upper-end of the
interpolated intensity guidance, but a little lower than the raw 
regional hurricane model output. Increasing shear near the time of 
landfall, and interaction with land after Lidia moves onshore is 
expected to result in rapid weakening and dissipation of the 
cyclone by 48 hours.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is now a hurricane and it is expected to continue to
strengthen as it approaches west-central Mexico on Tuesday.
Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon.
 
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western
Mexico.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves onshore along the coast of
west-central Mexico.
 
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 18.2N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 19.1N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 20.6N 105.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 22.5N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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