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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023
 
Satellite images indicate that Lidia is becoming better organized.
Deep convection is consolidating near the center and it appears that
an inner core is forming.  In addition, a large curved band has
developed on the south and east sides of the circulation.  The Air
Force Hurricane Hunters investigated Lidia earlier this afternoon
and found that the minimum pressure was quite low, around 985 mb.  A
combination of the aircraft flight-level wind and SFMR data support
increasing the wind speed to 60 kt, and is possible that this is
conservative.  The aircraft data and recent satellite images
suggest that the center has reformed to the south of the previous
positions.
 
Since the center of Lidia appears to have reformed, the initial 
motion of 065/7 kt is uncertain.  Water vapor images show a mid- to 
upper-level trough approaching Lidia, and that feature should steer 
the storm relatively quickly to the east-northeast toward 
west-central Mexico.  The main change for this forecast cycle is 
associated with Lidia's reformation, which is roughly 1 degree south 
of the previous estimates.  Based on the initial position 
adjustment, the new track forecast lies to the south of the previous 
prediction.  This forecast is close to the consensus aids and 
roughly halfway between the fast GFS solution and the much slower 
ECMWF run.  Based on the new forecast, Lidia is expected to reach 
the coast of Mexico Tuesday afternoon/evening.
 
Since Lidia appears to be developing an inner core while moving into 
conducive environmental conditions, significant strengthening is 
forecast.  The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C and 
into a favorable upper-level wind pattern. The NHC intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in good agreement 
with the hurricane regional models. Rapid weakening is forecast once 
Lidia moves inland due to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning Tuesday.
 
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban 
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain 
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of 
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western 
Mexico.
 
3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of
where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast
of west-central Mexico.
 
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 18.1N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 20.0N 107.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 21.8N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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