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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Mon Oct 09 2023
 
Deep convection has been on the increase during the past several
hours, but it is unclear if it has resulted in Lidia strengthening
yet.  Throughout Lidia's lifespan, there has been notable
uncertainty in the initial intensity, and it is no different at the
current time.  The latest satellite intensity estimates span from
47 to 65 kt, and based on that data, the initial intensity is held
at 55 kt.  However, the ASCAT data mentioned in the previous
discussion supported a lower wind speed estimate.  The Air Force
Hurricane Hunters are currently en route to investigate Lidia, and
the data they collect should provide very valuable information in
estimating Lidia's intensity and structure.
 
Lidia has made the expected turn to the northeast, and the initial
motion is now estimated to be 045/5 kt.  A mid- to upper-level 
trough that is approaching Lidia should cause the storm to 
accelerate to the northeast or east-northeast later today through 
Tuesday.  The models are in fair agreement on the overall path of 
Lidia, but there is still a significant spread in the timing of 
landfall with the GFS showing Lidia reaching the coast about 12 
hours before the ECMWF shows landfall.  The NHC track forecast 
continues to lie between those solutions and remains close to the 
various consensus models.  Based on the forecast approach, Lidia 
will likely reach the coast by late Tuesday.

The environmental conditions are becoming increasingly conducive for 
strengthening.  The storm is expected to move over SSTs near 30 C 
and into a conducive upper-level wind pattern related to a favorable 
trough interaction for the system.  The models show significant or 
rapid strengthening before Lidia reaches the coast, and the forecast 
continues to follow suit and lies near the middle of the guidance 
envelope.  Rapid weakening is forecast once Lidia moves inland due 
to the rugged terrain in west-central Mexico.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning Tuesday.
 
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban 
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain 
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of 
Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western 
Mexico.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south of 
where the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast 
of west-central Mexico.
 
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 18.5N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 20.0N 108.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 21.4N 105.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 23.1N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 60H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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