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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 PM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023
 
Lidia's convective structure has become somewhat less organized
since this afternoon. The cloud tops have warmed and there has been
an overall decrease in the deep convection near the center.  There 
were some arc clouds noted in late evening visible satellite 
images which suggests the system may have entrained some drier 
mid-level air.  Despite the recent loss of organization, the 
initial intensity is held at 60 kt, which is a blend of the 
various subjective and objective satellite estimates. 

It is interesting to note that simulated satellite imagery from 
the 18Z GFS and regional hurricane models showed a decrease in 
convection this evening, but they also indicated a return of the 
convection overnight, which is expected to lead to strengthening on 
Monday.  The upper-level winds over the system are forecast to 
become more conducive for strengthening while Lidia moves over 
slightly warmer SSTs on its approach to west-central Mexico.  Much 
of the dynamical model guidance calls for steady strengthening 
beginning tomorrow, and the latest NHC forecast shows a slightly 
higher peak intensity before landfall.  This is in good agreement 
within the latest HFIP corrected consensus model.  It should be 
mentioned that if Lidia is able to finally able to establish an 
inner core within the next 12-24 hours, this intensity forecast 
could be on the conservative side.  Rapid weakening is expected 
after Lidia moves inland over west-central Mexico.  A 72-hour point 
is provided for continuity but it is very likely that the cyclone 
will have dissipated by that time. 

Lidia is moving northward or 010 degrees at 6 kt.  A faster motion 
to the northeast and east-northeast is expected on Monday and 
Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the storm from 
the northwest.  The track guidance has not changed much this cycle, 
with the GFS still quite a bit faster than the remainder of the 
dynamical aids.  The NHC track forecast remains near the latest 
consensus models, and is very similar to the previous official 
forecast.  
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is expected to strengthen before it reaches west-central
Mexico, and hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch areas beginning Tuesday.
 
2. Heavy rains from Lidia will likely produce flash and urban
flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain
across the the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of 
Sinaloa, and coastal  portions of the state of Jalisco in western 
Mexico.

3.  A dangerous storm surge is expected near and to the south where 
the center of Lidia moves over the Islas Marias and the coast of 
west-central Mexico.  
 
4. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 18.2N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 18.8N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 19.4N 110.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 20.3N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 21.8N 106.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 23.7N 103.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  12/0000Z 25.6N 100.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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