ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023
 
Lidia continues to be relatively steady state this morning.  
Geostationary satellite images show little change in the convective 
pattern, and recent microwave data indicate that the system remains 
sheared with the low-level center located on the north side of the 
thunderstorm activity.  There is a large spread in the latest 
satellite intensity estimates that currently range from 49-77 kt.  
Given the structure of Lidia in microwave data, the initial 
wind speed is held steady at 60 kt, closer to the lower end of the 
intensity estimates.

The storm has been moving slowly north-northwestward at about 4 kt 
over the past 12-18 hours.  A turn to the north should occur later 
today, followed by a considerably faster motion to the northeast or 
east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday as a mid- to upper-level trough 
approaches the cyclone.  There is a fair amount of model spread on 
how sharply Lidia turns to the right and how quickly it moves toward 
the coast of Mexico.  The NHC official track forecast has been 
nudged to the left, or north, at 48 and 60 h toward the latest 
consensus aids.  

Given the current structure of Lidia and ongoing mid-level shear, 
little change in strength seems likely during the next day or so.  
However, the models show a more favorable upper-level pattern 
developing over the system on Monday and Tuesday while it moves over 
29-30 C SSTs.  These conditions should allow Lidia to strengthen, 
and it is expected to reach the coast of Mexico by late Tuesday as a 
hurricane.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The NHC 
intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and 
is similar to the previous one.

Based on the latest forecast, Hurricane Watches will likely be 
required for portions of west-central Mexico later today. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane while it moves
toward the west-central coast of Mexico on Tuesday. There is an
increasing risk of strong winds and heavy rain for the Islas Marias
and portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Interests in these
locations should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as
watches will likely be required later today or tonight.
 
2. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 16.9N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 17.6N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 18.3N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 19.0N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 19.9N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 21.3N 106.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 23.0N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN