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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 AM MDT Sun Oct 08 2023
 
Overnight GOES-18 Proxy-Vis satellite imagery and a recent SSMIS 
microwave overpass indicate that Lidia's vertical structure remains 
slightly tilted toward the north, with the center located near the 
northern edge of the cloud mass. The initial intensity is held at 60 
kt for this advisory and is based primarily on UW-CIMSS objective 
intensity techniques of the Deep Multispectral and IR Intensity TC 
estimators, which both yield an intensity estimate of 59 kt.
 
The statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates
that the deep-layer shear impeding Lidia's intensification rate 
during the past few days will decrease soon. This more conducive 
upper wind pattern should cause the cyclone to become a more 
vertically coherent system. Therefore, strengthening is expected 
while Lidia traverses warm (29-30C) sea surface temperatures, and 
Lidia is forecast to become a hurricane early Monday. The NHC 
intensity is based on a blend of the IVCN consensus and the Decay 
SHIPS and is just below the HFIP HCCA corrected consensus beyond 
the 48-hour period, which indicates a peak of 85 kt.
 
Lidia is drifting generally north-northwestward or 335/2 kt,
and this slow generally northward motion is expected to continue 
through today while the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a 
subtropical ridge. On Monday, Lidia is forecast to turn toward the 
north-northeast to northeast and accelerate toward the west-central 
coast of Mexico in response to a major shortwave trough approaching 
the system from the northeast. No significant changes were made to 
the previous advisory and the new official track forecast lies 
closely to the various multi-model consensus aids.
 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane while it moves
toward the west-central coast of Mexico on Tuesday. There is an
increasing risk of strong winds and heavy rain for the Islas Marias
and portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Interests in these
locations should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as
watches could be required later today or tonight.
 
2. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California
peninsula during the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 16.4N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 17.1N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 17.9N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 18.6N 111.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0600Z 19.3N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/1800Z 20.3N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0600Z 21.9N 103.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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