ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 PM MDT Sat Oct 07 2023
 
The satellite presentation of Lidia has improved since yesterday. 
Recent AMSR2 and SSMIS passive microwave images show signs of a 
mid-level eye feature in the 89 GHz channel. However, the vortex 
still appears tilted, with the low-level 37 GHz center situated to 
the northeast of the mid-level center. While the upper-level outflow 
is still restricted on the eastern side of the storm, the center has 
been located deeper underneath the cold convective canopy today. As 
a result, the satellite intensity estimates have risen, but they 
seem a little high based on the earlier ASCAT data. The initial 
intensity is raised to 60 kt, which is in best agreement with recent 
UW-CIMSS SATCON and D-PRINT estimates.
 
The moderate easterly shear over Lidia is forecast to persist for 
another 12-24 h, then weaken into early next week. The weaker 
shear should allow Lidia to become more vertically aligned and 
strengthen within a diffluent upper-level environment while moving 
over very warm waters. Most of the intensity guidance shows 
strengthening after 24 h while Lidia moves toward the coast of 
Mexico. The regional hurricane models (HAFS, HWRF, HMON) show some 
potential for significant intensification, and overall it appears 
more likely that Lidia reaches the coast at hurricane strength early 
next week. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised 
at 24-72 h, though it still lies below the IVCN and HCCA aids. Given 
the large spread noted in the intensity guidance, future adjustments 
are certainly possible. 
 
Lidia has not moved much since the last advisory, and its estimated 
initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/3 kt. The storm is 
expected to slowly turn northward on Sunday while moving around the 
western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Then, the southwesterly flow 
ahead of an upper-level trough to the north will cause Lidia to 
accelerate northeastward toward the west-central coast of Mexico. 
The largest spread in the track models is related to the forward 
speed of Lidia while it interacts with the trough. The GFS brings 
Lidia inland over mainland Mexico about 24 h earlier than the rest 
of the global models, and thus there is more uncertainty in the 
longer-range track forecast. For now, the NHC track follows a 
consensus approach and lies between the TVCE and HCCA aids, similar 
to but slightly faster than the previous prediction.


Key Messages:

1. Lidia is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane while it moves 
toward the west-central coast of Mexico early next week. There is an 
increasing risk of strong winds and heavy rain for the Islas Marias 
and portions of the west-central coast of Mexico. Interests in these 
locations should closely monitor the latest forecast updates, as 
watches could be required as early as Sunday.

2. Swells from Lidia will cause dangerous surf and rip current 
conditions along the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California 
peninsula during the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 16.1N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 16.8N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 17.6N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 18.3N 111.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 18.9N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 19.8N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 21.1N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 24.0N 101.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
NNNN