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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023
 
Lidia continues to produce very intense convection. Cloud tops as 
cold as -95 deg C have been observed in the center of the main 
convective mass during the past few hours. However, microwave data 
from multiple polar-orbiting satellites during the past 6 hours 
indicate that Lidia's center is not co-located with this convection. 
Instead, the surface center appears to be displaced to the east, 
with the tropical storm tilted by continued easterly shear. Recent 
Dvorak estimates are not representative of this tilted structure, so 
the intensity estimate is based more on the UW-CIMSS DPRINT, DMINT, 
and SATCON techniques which incorporate microwave-based intensity 
information. Based on those, the intensity remains 60 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Although Lidia is tilted, its center is still obscured by the cirrus 
canopy produced by its deep convection. Consequently, there is more 
uncertainty than normal with the tropical storm's center location. 
This is probably the largest source of uncertainty associated with 
Lidia's track for the next 2 to 3 days. Lidia should move slowly 
west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then gradually begin 
to turn northward after that. After about 72 h, Lidia should begin 
to accelerate northeastward, steered by a shortwave trough 
approaching from the northwest. While the dynamical models agree 
quite well on this general forecast, there is quite a bit of 
disagreement on how fast Lidia will accelerate around day 4 and 5. 
The NHC official track forecast has been nudged eastward, and lies 
roughly halfway between the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.
 
Continued easterly wind shear should prevent significant 
strengthening during the next few days. That said, if the center can 
co-locate slightly better with the convection, even temporarily, 
some strengthening is possible. Beginning around 72 h, the upper-air 
environment will change, with the shear direction switching to 
westerly and upper-level difluence likely increasing. However, Lidia 
will be moving into a drier environment at the same time, and most 
intensity models do not show much change in the winds at that time, 
up or down. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the 
previous one, and is higher than the model consensus in the short 
term, in part out of respect to the higher-than-normal uncertainty 
associated with Lidia's initial position and strength.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 16.5N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 16.6N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 16.8N 112.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 17.0N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 17.5N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 18.2N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 18.8N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky
 
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