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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023
 
Lidia's satellite presentation has improved during the past several 
hours.  Cloud tops remain very cold (-88 Celsius) and the cloud mass 
has increased with a primary curved banding wrapping around from the 
northwest to southeast side of the cyclone.  Based on a recent 
GPM/GMI overpass, however, the center is still located near the 
northeastern edge of the convective canopy.  Using a blend of the 
subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, the UW-CIMSS Deep 
Multi-spectral Intensity TC estimator (D-MINT) objective analysis, 
and the latest ATMS microwave intensity estimate, the initial 
intensity is raised to 60 kt for this advisory.

Although the 20-25 kt of easterly shear has continued to impinge on 
the eastern portion of the cyclone, the upper-wind pattern has 
become appreciably diffluent.  This favorable contribution along 
with warm oceanic surface temperatures and a relatively moist 
surrounding atmosphere should support further strengthening during 
the next 48 hours.  Afterward, a gradual weakening trend should 
commence due to increasing southwesterly shear and Lidia moving into 
a highly stable marine air mass.  The official forecast shows Lidia 
becoming a hurricane a little sooner than the previous intensity 
forecast, and is based on a compromise of the statistical SHIPS and 
LGEM intensity guidance.
 
The center of Lidia has been difficult to pinpoint this morning, and 
Lidia is estimated to be moving in a somewhat uncertain direction 
and forward speed of 295/4 kt.  The cyclone is being steered by weak 
mid-tropospheric flow produced by a subtropical ridge extending over 
the eastern Pacific from the west coast of central Mexico.  Near the 
60 hour period, Lidia is forecast to turn northwestward to 
north-northwestward while rounding the southwestern periphery of the 
ridge.  By the 72 hour period, the system should turn northward to 
north-northeastward in response to a mid-latitude shortwave trough 
approaching Lidia from the northwest.  The NHC track forecast 
adjusted a little to the north of the previous one due to the 
initial position adjustment, and closely follows the TVCE 
multi-model consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 16.2N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 16.4N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.6N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 16.8N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 17.1N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 17.6N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 18.2N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 19.1N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 20.5N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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