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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023
 
Lidia's overall satellite depiction has not changed much from the
previous advisory. There continues to be intermittent burst of
deeper convection within the convective shield. A SSMIS microwave
pass depicts that the low-level center remains displaced to the east
of the mid-level core, suggesting that Lidia has not become any
better organized as it continues to battle easterly wind shear. The
subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 50 to 65 kt.
A partial scatterometer pass hit the NW side of the system but did
not depict winds as high as the current estimates, but missed the
central core. Given the overall satellite depiction remains similar
to this morning, the peak intensity remains 50 kt for this
advisory.
 
Lidia continues to move slowly northwestward at 315/3 kt. The system
is being steered by a strengthening mid-level ridge centered over
central Mexico. As the ridge strengthens, the system will continue
to move slowly and turn towards west-northwest then westward. In a
few days, a mid-/upper-level trough is forecast to approach from
the northwest which will weaken the aforementioned ridge. This will
induce another turn of Lidia to the northwest, then north to
northeastward through the end of the forecast period. There
continues to be some spread within the guidance envelope on the
along-track forward speed and when the turn back to the northeast
occurs later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is
similar to the previous in the short-term, but is a little faster
towards the end of the forecast period based on a blend of the TVCE
and HCCA consensus aids.
 
Moderate deep-layer easterly shear should continue over Lidia 
throughout the forecast period. Sea surface temperatures remain warm 
along the forecast track, with moist mid-level RH values the next 
few days. The cyclone should remain a small compact system, which 
may allow for fluctuations in intensity. The official intensity 
forecast is similar to the previous, and Lidia could become a 
hurricane this weekend. Some weakening is forecast in about 3 days 
due to an increase in drier mid-level air and continued easterly 
shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory, which lies near the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/2100Z 16.0N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 16.2N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 16.2N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 16.4N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0600Z 17.0N 113.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 17.5N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 18.3N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 18.8N 111.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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