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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 05 2023
 
Lidia continues to have bursts of deep convection, with cold cloud 
tops to -80 degrees Celsius, within the overall convective shield. 
An AMSR2 microwave pass depicts that the mid-level core continues to 
develop, with the low-level center displaced to the east of the 
mid-level center. There is a wide range of satellite estimates this 
morning. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB 
were T3.5/55kt this cycle, while objective estimates from UW-CIMSS 
AiDT and ADT range from 50 kt to 65 kt, respectively. However, an 
earlier scatterometer pass around 0500 UTC had much lower winds 
than anticipated near 35 kt. Given these higher satellite estimates 
and satellite imagery, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, 
which is on the lower end of the estimates and a little uncertain. 
Another scatterometer pass is anticipated over the system this 
afternoon.

Lidia continues to move slowly northwestward at 315/4 kt. The 
system is being steered by a mid-level ridge centered over central 
Mexico. By tonight, the ridge is forecast to strengthen to the 
north which will cause the system to slow even more and turn 
west-northwest then westward. In about 3 days, a mid-/upper-level 
trough is forecast to approach from the northwest which 
will weaken the aforementioned ridge. This will induce another turn 
of Lidia to the northwest, then north to northeastward through 
the end of the forecast period. There continues to be some spread 
within the guidance envelope on the along-track forward speed and 
when the turn back to the northeast occurs later in the forecast 
period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and is
based on a blend of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.

Moderate deep-layer easterly shear should continue over Lidia 
throughout the forecast period. Oceanic sea surface temperatures
remain warm along the forecast track, and the oceanic heat content 
remains high. The system should remain a small compact system, 
which may allow for fluctuations in intensity. GFS/ECMWF SHIPS 
intensity probabilities of a 25-kt increase in 24 hr have increased 
to 32 and 39 percent this cycle, respectively. While this is not 
explicitly forecast, it is something where the trends will have to 
continue to be monitored. The official intensity forecast has been 
slightly raised in the short-term, with Lidia forecast to become a 
hurricane in 48 h. Some weakening is forecast beyond 3 days due to 
an increase in drier mid-level air and continued easterly shear. The 
NHC intensity forecast lies near the simple corrected consensus, 
IVCN intensity guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 15.9N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 16.1N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 16.1N 110.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 16.0N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 16.0N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  08/0000Z 16.3N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 17.7N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 18.1N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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