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Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023
 
Lidia has maintained its small, sheared structure for the past 
several hours. Convection has been waning, but infrared 
geostationary imagery shows a growing burst of convection 
developing west of the estimated low-level center.  Microwave 
imagery also revealed a large curved band around the western and 
northern portion of the circulation.  Subjective and objective 
satellite intensity guidance nearly all agree on a 45-kt estimate, 
and therefore, the initial intensity is held constant for this 
advisory.
 
The storm has a somewhat uncertain motion since the center position 
is obscured by the cirrus canopy, but the direction is estimated to 
be northwestward, or 325/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge over Mexico is 
steering Lidia, and the storm is expected to maintain its current 
motion for the next 12 hours or so.  Then the ridge is forecast to 
build and turn the cyclone westward in the next day or so, with a 
slight decrease in forward motion.  By day 5, global models predict 
the ridge will erode and turn Lidia northwestward.  There is still 
above average spread in the model guidance, largely due to the 
along-track differences in the westward progression of the storm.  
The latest official track forecast has shifted slightly north of the 
previous advisory and favors the simple consensus aid, TVCE.
 
There are competing factors contributing to the intensity forecast.
While the storm is forecast to be over warm ocean waters and in an
area of decent mid-level moisture, a limiting factor is still the
moderate-to-strong deep-layer vertical wind shear.  Most models
show gradual strengthening, and minor adjustments have been made to
the latest NHC intensity forecast, which is closest to the IVCN
consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 15.6N 109.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 16.0N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 16.2N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 16.3N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 16.1N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 16.0N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 16.1N 113.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 16.5N 114.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 
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