ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
300 AM MDT Wed Oct 04 2023
 
Earlier microwave imagery and recent geostationary satellite data
indicate that the low-level center of Lidia is located just beneath
the eastern edge of a large convective mass with cloud top
temperatures below -80 degrees C.  The most recent subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T3.0 (45 kt) and T2.5 (35
kt), respectively.  Since the center appears to be slightly more
embedded within the deep convection, the initial intensity is raised
to 40 kt, using a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates. A very
recently arriving GMI microwave overpass shows that there has been
some increase in organization, but the mid-level center is
displaced about 30-40 n mi west of the low-level center.
 
The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330 degrees at
7 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from before.  A
mid-level ridge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to
steer the cyclone northwestward to north-northwestward during the
next 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, a narrow ridge is forecast to
build to the north of Lidia which should result in a slower westward
motion through much of the remainder of the forecast period.  There
is still a large amount of along-track spread in the guidance after
the westward turn, with the UKMET and ECMWF on the faster side of
the guidance envelope.  The GFS and HAFS-A/B models are much
slower.  It should also be noted that there is unusually large
spread between the HFIP corrected consensus model and the various
multi-model consensus aids.  This results in lower-than-normal
confidence in Lidia's long range track forecast.  The NHC track
forecast is close to a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and regional
hurricane models.
 
The SHIPS guidance indicates that moderate-to-strong easterly
vertical wind shear will persist over Lidia during the next several
days.  However, other environmental conditions consisting of warm
sea surface temperatures and a moist environment favor some
strengthening.  As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls from
slow intensification during the next several days, but it is a
little lower than the previous forecast at the long range. The
updated NHC wind speed forecast is a little above the latest HCCA
and IVCN consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 14.0N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 14.8N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 15.3N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/1800Z 15.7N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  06/0600Z 15.8N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  06/1800Z 15.7N 110.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 15.6N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 15.5N 113.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 15.9N 114.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN